What happens in Hackensack doesn't stay in Hackensack

As the ballots from yesterday's Republican Party primary have only just been counted, it's a little early to be handicapping the race for Bergen County Executive, but GOP nominee Todd Caliguire may actually have a shot at winning this thing. Democratic incumbent Dennis McNerney remains the prohibitive favorite thanks to his large campaign war chest and the tendency of county voters to lean toward Democrats, but a couple of factors may boost Caliguire's candidacy just enough to vault him into the leadership position he seeks.

Why should any of this matter to Teaneck residents? To be sure, county government is the ultimate insiders' game, full of intrigues and machinations, and most people in municipality-rich New Jersey pay it little heed. The fact is, however, that meaningful changes in the size and scope of county government and services can make a significant difference to the financial position of Teaneck families. Bergen County's 2006 budget totals over $400 million , and the revenues to fund that spending come out of the pockets of Teaneck taxpayers, even if it is less obvious to them.

As discussed in a previous posting, Republican nominee Caliguire has an ambitious, and most likely unworkable plan to slice a large chunk off of the county's expenditures that he figures could save the average homeowner approximately $600 a year. McNerney will certainly hammer away at Caliguire over the folly of his plan to shift the burden for many county services onto the state, but it may not harm him. Holding out the tantalizing prospect of reduced spending and tax reductions is likely to resonate particularly with voters in 2006. As evidenced by the historically elevated number of school budget defeats earlier this year and the heightened sensitivity of legislators in Trenton to tax concerns, the New Jersey taxpayer is once again reaching a breaking point and wants to send a message that change is needed. If McNerney promises more of the same, voters could punish him for it.

One other factor may work in Caliguire's favor: the tightness of the race for U.S. Senate, which pits Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez, who was appointed to the position by Gov. Corzine, against Tom Kean Jr. Early polls have the two running neck and neck, but the fact that Caliguire will be sharing a line with Kean Jr. and enjoying some of his name recognition could win him some votes. Add to that Menendez's rather ordinary record so far in the Senate and some of the ethics concerns that dog his candidacy, and it is possible that there could be a strong turnout for Kean Jr. that will spill over into support for Caliguire. Given that 16% of Democratic voters preferred James D. Kelly Jr. (who until recently lived in a group home for the mentally ill) over Menendez in yesterday's primary, you have to believe that the broader New Jersey electorate will be giving Tom Kean Jr. and the Republican line a closer look in November.